Sunday, May 31, 2015

May Verification and June Forecast 2015

First, let's recap the May forecast:

This May will finish with something close to 401 preliminary tornado reports (I will update this when the final May numbers come in).  The 30-year normal (1985-2014) for May is 252 tornado reports, for a final May 2015 tally of 159% of normal.  This falls into the "Above Average" ERTAF category.

Despite a record slow start to the year, April and May have combined to get us back to just shy of 100 tornadoes from the latest ten year average:
Image courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center
I would say this forecast worked out reasonably well, as it called for 90% chance that May would end up average or above average in terms of reported tornado activity. 

Onto the June forecast! 

Based on the current large scale pattern, dynamical models, analog approaches, and ongoing research, here is my forecast for June 2015:

20% Chance Below Average |  50% Chance Average | 30% Chance Above Average

For those interested, sub-monthly forecasts (ERTAF) are being made weekly (issued on Sunday evenings) and can be found here.

Here is a map of reported tornadoes for the month of June:

Caveat emptor: These forecasts are solely my own and do not represent an official forecast from any corporation or government agency. Please use caution when interpreting the results and respect their origin.

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